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One door closes, another opens
As I sit here reading the news this morning I am convinced that the US is heading for a recession next year. However, I’m not really all that concerned about it. We’ll work through this cycle in the same way we did in 2002 and come out on top. Don’t get me wrong, I think 2008 will be a tough year but I am much more concerned about what will happen to the economy four to five years from now as the baby boomers head full force into retirement draining social security and the economy with them. More on that some other time.
What I see now is one door closing and other doors of opportunity opening.
I remember back in the early 2000’s when Philip Kaplan announced that he was starting AdBrite. I was shocked that someone would have the kahunas to go out and start a banner ad network when everyone was proclaiming the death of the Internet. I had a similar reaction when Jon Battelle launched Federated Media. Both Federated and AdBrite are doing tens of millions in revenue and are reported to be acquisition targets. What was it that they saw that so many others did not?
Opportunity.
When I look at the current economy, especially outside of the world of tech, I see a lot of opportunity. Right now in the mortgage industry there is blood in the streets. People are out of work left and right and many of the smaller players are about to be regulated right out of business. This is also affecting the title industry and online lead generation business. At a time when so many are getting out others are seeing opportunity.
The other night my mom handed me a flyer advertising an auction for two homes in Midway. They had both been on the market for over a year. The bidding was starting on one home for $300k less than its present asking price (it had been on the market for about $800k). The bidding on the other home was starting at half its advertised price. At a time when real estate is depreciating - when Joe and Sally six pack are freaking out about their homes “equity”, their ARM reset, and that second mortgage they took two years ago - others are seeing an opportunity to get into real estate for dirt, dirt cheap.
Another example - at a time when the Dollar is collapsing others are seeing opportunity in foreign currency.
Its not hard to pinpoint opportunity. You just have to smarter than the average American and you have to be educated on how the world works. That’s really how most people in this world who are making money…make money. They’re just one step ahead of everyone else.
So what opportunities do you see?
The only thing worse than a bubble bursting is a bubble NOT bursting. I’m glad because I’ll now be able to get into a house I can afford.
Left by Jordy on 11/22/2007The whole “auction” thing is actually just a selling tactic that has been around for a number of years (prior to the real estate slowdown). Hence, you get marketing materials in the mail.
The idea is to list the home for really cheap to get a ton of eyeballs/foot traffic and then get a bunch of offers. It’s also called the “21 Day Sale” in some circles.
On Mortgages
Left by Russell on 11/24/2007It was way too easy for any idiot to be able to sell a mortgage, which led to a lot of idiots/dishonest fools entering the field.