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The great Web 2.0 bubble debate (or why its time to start thinking about Web 3.0)
John Dvorak set off a Web firestorm today when he declared that the Web 2.0 “bubble” is coming and that the end is near. Sometimes TechCrunch writer, Marshall Kirkpatrick and Robert Scoble took Dvorack to task on their respective blogs. Hundreds of other joined in. Ouch.
I thought I would weigh in myself not so much on what Dvorack said but on the topic of a bubble.
What has changed since bubble 1.0? Bubble 1.0 was a confusing time. Although the Internet was created in the 60’s it didn’t come into its own until the late 1990’s. Bubble 1.0 was a grand experiment. It encompassed the best of what entrepreneurship is really about - going into uncharted waters and hanging out there to see what happens. eCommerce was the rage. User generated content was not so much the rage. Everyone was running on a dialup, ad supported models were a joke and email was the killer app.
Fast forward eight or ten years. The triple convergence happened (if you don’t know what that is then read The World is Flat). About two billion people entered the world’s work force with the desire to either work with America or kick our butts. Mobile isn’t just about calling on an analog phone, everyone is on broadband, ad supported models are a reality and more and more ad dollars move to the Web everyday. Social networks are the current killer app and we’re just seeing the beginning of some big things in that space. User generated content (of all types) is now replacing formal media.
You can’t look at Bubble 1.0 and compare it to Bubble 2.0. Its simple ignorance to do so. The world has changed. Period.
So what does the future hold? I think we’re now moving away from Web 2.0 and moving into a period between Web 2.0 and Web 3.0. What is Web 3.0? Its defined technologically by a number of things but what’s more important than technology is how markets that are now fully integrated globally will react. Some of the attributes of 3.0 from a consumer or user perspective include:
Or in other words a lot of technology that will make life easier or maybe more complicated (time will tell). Web 3.0 will look a lot like Web 2.0 in that it will be driven by a higher level of adoption of technology by the masses. But Web 2.0 is still a geeks paradise - its only been partially adopted by the masses. A good example of this is the adoption (or non-adoption) of RSS. Web 3.0 will be a different story.Â
The advances in technology over the next five years will be staggering. Acquisition cycles for start-ups with something noteworthy will be condensed as players with lots of cash like Microsoft and Google scramble to buy up talent and IP. We’re already seeing this with advertising. Where it used to be three to five years it will now be less than 18 months to acquisition. Windows of opportunity will close and open faster than they ever have. The race will only get more heated.
Google will lose their market share - even Google admits we are at the very forefront of search. There is plenty of room for a competitor to come in and take over the space. If Google keeps operating as an ad company and not a search engine it will be easy for breakthroughs to be introduced to the market that will knock them off the hill. Microsoft held a dominate position for 20 years. Google will hold theirs for 10. The Google replacement will hold theirs for 5 and so on.
In my opinion social networks won’t replace the desktop in this time frame but outfits like Facebook will redefine the way we communicate online. Mobile will rule two way and multichannel forms of communication and email will be used only for formal communication. Everyone will own a smart phone. Global markets will condense and become closer together because people will come closer together through technology.
Here’s the bottom line for tech entrepreneurs - its time to stop thinking about Web 2.0. If you’re building an RSS play or some kind of blogging deal you’re chances of being something great in the near future are not so good. What would you say if I told you I was going to start a local dialup ISP? You wouldn’t say anything you’d just laugh. This is how I feel when I see guys building stuff that is part of what will be an obvious downward trend in the near future. What’s beyond what you’re looking at? That’s what you need to be building. Simple, efficient, fast, revenue, hyper-growth market, mobile, global user base, social, youth - think along these lines and apply it to your strategy.  Then think one step beyond that or three if you can. Just see the future. That’s where it now is and where it always will be. Â
As long as we’re arbitrarily versioning a nonversionable system, I think we’re ready to switch to “Web XP”. After that I suggest the “Information Super-Duper Highway”, then “Deep Cyberspace 9″. If it turns out to be buggy we can always just roll back to a previous version or just release some patches in a service pack.
Left by Jordy on 08/02/2007Good post. Entrepreneurs all too often today aren’t being innovators. Visionaries. Disruptors. People and companies who build products, not features. It’s a me too world it seems. Especially in Utah. Why do I feel that startups in UT are always a day late and a dollar short? Set out to change the world, and then go do it!
Left by Jeremy on 08/02/2007@ Jordy
“versioning a nonversionable system”
Don’t look at it as a system - look at it as a market…it will make more sense.
Left by Chris Knudsen on 08/02/2007@ Jer
Amen!
Left by Chris Knudsen on 08/02/2007This is a total joke. Societal integration with social networking? Sounds pathetic. Everyone spending all their time with their “friends” online, instead of, I dunno, actually at a bar, club, having dinner with them, watching a movie, spending time with their actual friends & family, etc.
These shiny new things (twitter, facebook, etc.) are all nice diversions for people who have time (college & high school kids, new employees in the workforce) or tech bloggers obsessed with the idea of technology itself. For people with lives, responsibilities and families they might use these sites a little, but I predict a “friendster” or “classmates.com” like future for 90% of what’s “hot” right now in pretty much everything web 2.0.
I love the Internet for it’s utility, and I’m not against the idea of having ways to stay connected with some farther out reaches of my network, but society’s not going to “fully integrate with social networking”. Social networking will fade into the background as one small way we divert our attention, like TV, or surfing wikipedia, or posting on blogs of people we’ve never heard of before.
Left by jcricket on 08/03/2007@jcricket:
Demography would disagree with you. Don’t look at the 30 + year olds now to determine the trend look at teenagers. That’s the ticket.
Left by Chris Knudsen on 08/04/2007